Please keep in mind that in Sedeprivationism, the elections are considered valid. This must be so, to insure there is continuity (at least materially) of the Papal office. The thesis only concerns itself with the external manifestation of the habitual intention of doing harm to the Church; no the secret impediment, so whether the heresy is material or formal, it does not matter. As Pope Leo XIII taught in the encyclical Apostolicae Curae,"The Church does not judge about the mind and intention, in so far as it is something by its nature internal; but in so far as it is manifested externally she is bound to judge concerning it".
We know that it is impossible that the authentic Vicar of Christ on earth, when engaging either the Extraordinary Solemn Magisterium of the Church (ex-cathedra papal pronouncements), or the Ordinary Magisterium of the Church (teaching in union with the Bishops of the world, either dispersed or gathered, which Vatican II Council falls into this second category at the very least) teaches something against the Faith, against an already revealed doctrine.
That is how we can tell.
You dodged the question, but the contradiction in your position remains.
If you believe #1 and #2 of your stated position..
1. A validly elected pope can not fall into heresy.
2. Immediately after the election of a pope, a Catholic cannot determine whether the election was valid, i.e. whether the elected is a valid pope or an imposter.
3. After the election of a pope, a Catholic must treat him as a valid pope, unless and until he is proven invalid.
.. then it logically follows that you believe there must have been a
secret impediment which caused the election of the pope to be
secretly invalid, i.e. at the time of his election. We're not talking about the manifestation of this impediment, we're only talking about "what is", and "why it is". If you are unable to name me one example of a secret impediment, in other words,
if there is no such thing as a secret impediment which secretly invalidates a papal election, then at least one of your premises must be wrong, and possibly both. Which one(s)?
So, we're not even considering intention/guilt, or material/formal heresy. All we are talking about here is
public vs secret heresy. Shifting towards sedeprivationism will make that problem only worse. You will simply have to deal with the contradiction and change some of your premises, sooner or later.
PS: Please, rethink your position sooner rather than later. The longer you wait, the deeper you will dig in and the harder it will be to get back on track.